What this layer holds
The funnel and cohorts
Four stages, four populations, and the transitions between them—the number that actually means something.
Leading and lagging
Why we separate what predicts from what confirms, and how that solves the patience problem.
The baseline period
Sixty to ninety days where we make no quantitative claims at all, and why.
Unit economics
What a customer costs and what they are worth, computed simply and honestly.
Experiments
Every test declared before it runs, including the number that would make it a failure.
The monthly thesis review
The editor’s letter. What the last period produced and what the next one is betting on.